'The people who are suffocating will wake up': African leaders ponder own fate

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'The people who are suffocating will wake up': African leaders ponder own fate

By Katharine Houreld
Updated

Nairobi: Hours after Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe was forced out after 37 years in power, Uganda's president, another former guerrilla in office for more than three decades, was tweeting about pay rises for civil servants and bright prospects for his army tank crews.

Supporters of long-serving African leaders dismiss parallels with Zimbabwe, where Mugabe's former deputy Emmerson Mnangagwa was set to take power on Friday with military and public backing.

Mnangagwa, known as "the crocodile" had fled Zimbabwe after Mugabe fired him as vice-president this month, following accusations by Mugabe's wife Grace that the former spy chief was plotting a coup. But the intervention by the armed forces and a decision by the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front to back Mnangagwa as its leader and to begin impeachment proceedings against the 93-year-old Mugabe prompted the president to resign.

But Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's tweets, which come amid rising anger at the 73-year-old's attempts to prolong his rule, suggest he is looking south and wondering about his own fate.

The fall in Zimbabwe of Robert Mugabe, seen with his wife Grace, has raised hopes among African opposition politicians that other long-serving leaders will topple.

The fall in Zimbabwe of Robert Mugabe, seen with his wife Grace, has raised hopes among African opposition politicians that other long-serving leaders will topple.Credit: New York Times

"Now that the economic situation in Uganda is improving, the government will be able to look into raising of salaries of soldiers, public servants, health workers and teachers and also deal with institutional housing," Museveni tweeted on Wednesday.

It was unclear what improvement he meant. Uganda's faltering economy is growing too slowly to absorb a booming population of 37 million. The number of citizens spending less than a dollar a day has surged to 27 per cent, the statistics office reported in September, up from 20 per cent five years ago.

Museveni's office was not immediately available for comment on the tweets, but John Baptist Nambeshe, a ruling party MP who opposes the president's attempts to have an age limit on his post lifted, said there was no coincidence. "The timing couldn't have been coincidental. It was to underscore his might, that probably the military is still solidly behind him, unlike in Zimbabwe," Nambeshe said.

Museveni may not be alone.

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Several African leaders have faced popular opposition in recent years, from Togo, where thousands protested this autumn, to Gabon, where riots broke out last year after President Ali Bongo was re-elected in a disputed vote.

Mugabe's fall has raised hopes among opposition politicians that other long-serving leaders will fall, but also stoked fears that those who replace them may be no better.

Long-time leaders

Uganda's long-time President Yoweri Museveni.

Uganda's long-time President Yoweri Museveni.Credit: AP

Ugandan President since 1986, Museveni is among Africa's longest-serving leaders. They include Equatorial Guinea's Teodoro Obiang, president for 38 years; Cameroon's Paul Biya, president for 35 years. Congo's Denis Sassou Nguesso, president for two stints totalling 33 years.

The Gnassingbe family have ruled Togo for half a century; as have the Bongo family in Gabon. The Kabila family have run the Democratic Republic of Congo for 20 years.

Some countries allow only two presidential terms, but several have rolled back such legislation. In Cameroon, Biya scrapped term limits and cracked down on the opposition. In Congo, Nguesso jailed an opposition leader this year for protesting against removal of term limits.

Franck Essi, secretary-general of the opposition Cameroon Peoples' Party, said opposition movements were closely watching events in Zimbabwe. "Leaders must put in place mechanisms for a democratic and peaceful transition that will allow new leadership. If not, sooner or later, the people who are suffocating will wake up," he said.

Some places have already seen change. Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore was ousted by protests in 2014 as he tried to change the constitution and extend his decades-long rule. In January, Gambia's erratic ruler Yahya Jammeh fled after regional pressure ended his 22-year reign.

Angolan president Jose Eduardo dos Santos stepped down this year after four decades in power; his handpicked successor has pushed out some key dos Santos allies.

For many nations, a Zimbabwe-style switch in the loyalties of the armed forces or a rift in the inner circle represents one of the few ways that rulers might be forced from power. Despite Zimbabwe's well-established opposition, change didn't come until Mugabe's inner circle fell out over his succession plans, and the military put him under house arrest.

Brigitte Adjamagbo-Johnson, a top Togolese opposition official, said they had hoped for a Zimbabwean-type change of power where the military came over to their side.

"We'd wanted the Togolese army to fight alongside us. We were moved seeing that Zimbabwe's army and civilian population were all in the streets dancing. That's what we want in Togo," she said. "There will be change in Zimbabwe this year and there will be in Togo too.

Standing firm

Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila.

Democratic Republic of Congo's President Joseph Kabila.Credit: AP

In central Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo's Joseph Kabila has repeatedly postponed elections after refusing to step down at the end of his term last year, sparking deadly protests.

Jean-Pierre Kambila, Kabila's deputy chief of staff, tweeted that Zimbabwe's protests were a colonial fantasy. "A fabricated demonstration dreamed up by those who do not accept the liberation of Africa. Other Mugabes will be born. Nothing to worry about," he wrote.

Uganda, a key Western ally set to begin exporting its substantial oil reserves, removed term limits in 2005 to extend Museveni's rule. The east African nation has seen far less violence under Museveni than the two dictators who preceded him. But now tensions are rising as social services crumble and parliamentarians attempt to remove a constitutional age cap that would bar Museveni from standing in the next election.

Police have used deadly force against protesters, and repeatedly arrested the main opposition leader. Security forces dragged parliamentarians opposing the bill out of the legislature. On Wednesday, police raided a popular newspaper, detaining eight staff.

Okello Oryem, Uganda's state minister for foreign affairs, dismissed any parallels with Zimbabwe, saying Mugabe's overthrow was the result of Western interference.

"The intelligence services of the West have worked day and night to bring down Zimbabwe," he said. "Citizen pressure in Zimbabwe can only work if and when the army allows it."

But another Ugandan opposition leader, Asuman Basalirwa, warned that national leaders who refused to step down risked plunging their countries into conflict. Military intervention to end dictatorships ultimately leads to more repression, he said, something that many feared might be in store for Zimbabwe.

"It is time for the continent to democratise," he said. "Those who have not yet experienced what happened in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and now Zimbabwe should just wait for their turn because it will surely come."

Hunger for change

Zimbabwe's incoming leader Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Zimbabwe's incoming leader Emmerson Mnangagwa.Credit: Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi

In Zimbabwe, there's a public hunger for a real break from the policies of Mugabe, whose resignation sparked scenes of jubilation in the streets of the capital.

Change is desperately needed. Mnangagwa is inheriting an economic wasteland that will take years and a complete reversal of some of the government's signature policies to set right.

The economy is half the size it was in 2000, and has slipped from being one of the 10 biggest in sub-Saharan Africa to No. 20. Formal jobs outside the government are virtually non-existent, there are chronic cash shortages and roads and other public infrastructure have crumbled. Many of the best-educated Zimbabweans have moved to neighbouring South Africa and Britain, leaving the country with limited expertise to rebuild.

When Mnangagwa spoke to thousands of supporters in Harare on Wednesday evening in his first public appearance since returning to Zimbabwe, he promised a new start. "The voice of the people is the voice of God," he said. "Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and unfolding democracy."

But opposition leaders such as the Movement for Democratic Change's Morgan Tsvangirai, a former prime minister, and former finance minister Tendai Biti, who heads the People's Democratic Party, will be listening to Mnangagwa's inaugural speech closely for clues as to whether he's ready to build bridges with ruling party Zanu-PF's rivals before general elections next year.

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"There are some small signs suggesting it will be more of the same, and some small signs saying it will never be the same again," Biti said. "Right now we're in a state of flux."

Reuters, Bloomberg

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