Database Confusion Leads to Rush for Rice Import in Indonesia
Jakarta. Different databases kept by Indonesia's agriculture and trade ministries were allegedly the main culprit in the government's late decision to import rice so close to a harvest season — a decision roundly criticized by farmers for putting pressure on the price of local rice.
"The government had trusted the data put forward by the Agriculture Ministry, wrongly so," Dwi Santosa, a professor from Bogor Institute of Agriculture, told the Jakarta Globe on Tuesday (16/01).
Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman said last month the country had produced more rice than it needed last year, meeting President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's target of rice self-sufficiency.
But the price of rice in the market tells a different story. Trade Ministry data showed that on Jan. 12, medium quality rice cost Rp 11,500 ($0.93) per kilogram, above the recommended retail price of Rp 9,450 set by the ministry.
The Agriculture Ministry said January’s rice production is expected to reach 2.8 million tons, more than the monthly consumption of around 2.5 million tons.
But the Trade Ministry's number is different, with rice production in the same month expected at a much lower 900,000 tons.
Dwi said the country’s rice stock started to fall in July-September last year, after a lean harvest season caused by infestation in several parts of the country, including in Indonesia's biggest rice bowl, East Java.
"The Indonesian Farmers' Seed Bank Association [AB2TI] has been encouraging the government to start importing rice since last year," Dwi said.
Dwi said the timing of the current rice import is less than ideal since local farmers expect a major rice harvest in the first quarter of this year.
Importing rice so close to harvest season may cause a "price collapse" for local rice.
Dwi strongly recommended that rice import should arrive in the first two weeks of February so as to not interfere with local rice harvest.
Import Plans
The Indonesian government has decided it will import 500,000 tons of medium quality rice by the end of January to boost the country’s stockpile.
Coordinating Economics Minister Darmin Nasution said on Monday the buffer rice stock at national procurement agency Bulog tops out at 875,000 tons, not enough to keep the price of rice stable until the next harvest season.
"We need to import rice to protect not only consumers but also farmers," Darmin said in a press conference.
Indonesia's rice import will come from its traditional suppliers Vietnam and Thailand, but no shipment plan has been decided.
The head of Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Suhariyanto, warned the government to keep price rice under control if it wants inflation to stay under the 2018 state budget's target of 3.5 percent.
"The rising price of rise is worrisome. The government needs to keep food price volatility down," Suhariyanto said.
BPS data showed the price of rice was the fourth biggest contributor to national inflation last year, accounting for 0.16 of the total 3.61 percent.
How to Avoid Data Disparity
The government has asked BPS and the Technology Assessment and Application Agency (BPPT) to compile data on rice production in harvest areas to be used as the main references for Bulog's database.
"This should prevent over-optimistic prediction of rice production," BPS head Suhariyanto said.
The government will also release a one-map policy in August which will contain data on planting areas and irrigation.
Task teams will be formed to verify data and minimize mistakes in estimating rice production.
The issue of rice import has been a thorn in the side for President Jokowi, who wants to keep food prices down — rice import will help this — but also wants to pursue the agenda of rice self-sufficiency to protect farmers.
BPS data showed Jokowi's administration has already imported 2.9 million tons of rice worth Rp 16.6 trillion from 2014 to 2017.
Rice consumption in Indonesia is among the highest in the world, with each Indonesian consuming 114 kilograms every year.
In comparison, average annual rice consumption in Vietnam is at 191 kg per person, in Thailand 147 kg, in India 78 kg and in China 75 kg, according to data compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in 2016.
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