Replacing one polluting sector with another? The perils of shifting from coal to livestock in Cesar, Colombia

The global agrifood system faces significant challenges to its sustainability and its contribution to climate change is widely recognized. Notably, emissions from livestock represent the largest portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the global agrifood system. Nevertheless, the growing need for energy – both for power generation and food for humans – provided by coal and livestock, respectively, has never been greater. It is therefore critical to diversify both economies without worsening their social, environmental and economic impacts.

Colombia is among the top five largest coal exporters in the world and, within the country, the region of Cesar is the largest coal producer. Until recently, Cesar’s economic growth has relied heavily on this sector: coal mining accounted about 40% of Cesar’s GDP in 2023, and approximately 35% of Cesar’s fiscal revenues come from mining royalties. Given such dependence on coal mining, Cesar’s government . While planning documents do not explicitly call for livestock to replace coal as the main economic driver, the livestock sector became central to Cesar’s efforts to diversify its economy away from coal.

However, is Cesar replacing one high-emissions sector with another? And what can be done to ensure a more just transition – one that restores environmental injustices and avoids future ones? In Colombia, livestock has played a strategic role in the economy, employment generation and food security, among others. Nationally, while representing about 1.4% of the GDP, the livestock sector makes up 21.8% of Colombia’s agribusiness GDP and generates about 1.1 million rural jobs, which represent 19% of national agribusiness employment. Although beef consumption in Colombia has decreased 12.8% between 2015 and 2023 (from 20.3 to 17.7 kg per capita), Colombian beef exports have gained importance. Indeed, the Colombian Cattle Ranchers Federation (FEDEGAN) aims to make Colombia one of the top 10 producers of meat worldwide by 2032, compared to where it stands now: number 20 in production and among the 20 largest exporters.

Within Colombia, Cesar has one of the largest cattle inventories. Livestock production represents as much as 60% of the jobs in the sector and 8% of the department GDP together with agriculture and fisheries, to which livestock contributes 70%. However, most of those jobs are informal, and the property rights of as much as 58% of rural land property in Cesar are unclear, making livestock producers highly vulnerable to dispossession and economic instability. Land grabbing is also a key challenge, as it involves the illegal acquisition of land, often by powerful actors such as agribusinesses, mining companies or armed groups, through coercion, fraud or violence, leading to social, economic and environmental consequences. Difficulties in accessing land forces small producers to work on leased land, increasing production costs and undermining economic stability.